CO129-597-2 Estimates 1949 1-3-1948 - 14-7-1949 — Page 131

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5.

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Unless these reports are to be delayed considerably beyond the end of the quarter to which they refer, it will not be possible to give the Colony's cumulative surplus as desired

in the eighth paragraph of your Savingram No.1236 of the 9th (34) December, 1948. This figure must depend on Crown Agents receipts and disbursements, details of which necessarily are not at once forthcoming. The last month for which accounts have been completed is August, and at the close of that month the General Revenue Balance was $44,405,326, as compared with $37,063,396.36 on the 31st March, 1948. Including an estimated sum for disbursements by the Crown Agents, expenditure for the first nine months of the financial year was approximately $116,000,000, against an estimated revenue of $135,000,000. surplus on working for these nine months is thus in the neighbourhood of $19,000,000, bringing the General Revenue Balance on the 31st December, 1948, to a total of approximately $56,000,000.

The

6. From these figures it will be seen that the Colony's financial position on the whole cannot be regarded as unsatisfactory The Estimates for 1948/49 were framed in the belief that a recession in trade was to be expected in the course of the year, but although the "sellers' market" has largely disappeared, and the margin of profit has been considerably reduced, the volume of trade still continues at a high level. As noted in the sixth paragraph of your Savingram already referred to, a further influx of flight capital has occurred, but hitherto seems to have evidenced itself only by another rise in land and property values. The share market has remained largely unaffected. Indeed, anxieties regarding Hong Kong's position in the event of a large scale Communist advance resulted in a substantial drop in business, but latterly an improvement has set in.

7.

Future trends are under consideration in connection with the Estimates for 1949/50, which are now in draft, and it is perhaps more appropriate that any forecast might be deferred until the general position shown by the Estimates can be surveyed. Your decision on the question of Cost of Living Allowances is awaited in order to make the survey with some degree of confidence.

8.

A question which is still giving cause for serious consideration is that of staff. The volume of work in practically all departments of Government continues at a very high level, and overtime, especially in the administrative and professional grades, is the rule rather than the exception. Nevertheless it seems probable that more efficient organization might make possible a reduction of staff, and it is for this reason that the visit of an efficiency expert is awaited with

by whom?! some anxiety. A considerable number of posts in the permanent

establishment remain unfilled. Approximately 150 officers are on indent from the United Kingdom, but instructions have been given that requirements should be reviewed, and that, not only because of the swelling bill for personal emoluments, but even more in view of increasing difficulties of accommodation, vacancies must be left unfilled unless recruitment is absolutely essential.